The ultimate result of this consultancy is to strengthen UNDRR’s analytical capacity to support the Government of Maldives in understanding and managing the macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of disasters, with a particular focus on critical infrastructure systems. The consultancy will result in an improved, policy-relevant analytical framework that clearly links disaster-related damages and service disruptions in transport, power, telecommunications, and water infrastructure to macroeconomic outcomes and fiscal performance. The assignment will enable the Maldives Budget Stress Testing exercise to generate credible, decision-ready insights on how disasters affect growth, revenues, expenditures, and debt dynamics, and how preventive investments and disaster risk financing instruments can reduce these impacts. Ultimately, the consultancy will support evidence-based fiscal planning, risk-informed public investment decisions, and enhanced fiscal resilience in the Maldives in the face of increasing climate and disaster risks.

Home based

10 Mar-15 Apr 2026

Created in December 1999, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) is the designated focal point in the United Nations system for the coordination of efforts to reduce disasters and to ensure synergies among the disaster reduction activities of the United Nations and regional organizations and activities in both developed and less developed countries. Led by the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction (SRSG), UNDRR has over 150 staff located in its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, and in regional offices. Specifically, UNDRR guides, monitors, analyses and reports on progress in the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, supports regional and national implementation of the Framework and catalyzes action and increases global awareness to reduce disaster risk working with UN Member States and a broad range of partners and stakeholders, including civil society, the private sector, parliamentarians and the science and technology community. The Maldives is a small island economy highly dependent on tourism and related services, with total GDP estimated at about USD 7.0 billion in 2024. Tourism directly contributes roughly 20–30 % of GDP and is the dominant driver of foreign exchange earnings and government revenue, with around 2.05 million tourist arrivals recorded in 2024, a new peak for the country’s tourism sector. Real GDP growth has remained positive, with estimates ranging around 3–5 % in recent years, supported by tourism, transport, and communication services. However, the economy continues to face macroeconomic challenges, including inflation pressures, fiscal vulnerabilities, and a high public debt burden exceeding 130 % of GDP, which limits fiscal space for countercyclical and disaster-responsive spending. Due to its low-lying geography and reliance on coastal and marine-based activities, the Maldives is highly exposed to climate and disaster risks. Coastal flooding, storm surges, and extreme weather events pose significant threats to critical infrastructure sectors such as transport, power, telecommunications, and water systems. Damage to these systems can lead to large direct losses, disruptions in tourism operations and connectivity, and indirect macroeconomic impacts, including reduced output, employment, and government revenue. The fiscal implications of such disasters are notable, as emergency response, reconstruction, and revenue shortfalls can strain public finances in an already constrained budget environment. The Budget Stress Testing exercise thus aims to systematically assess how disasters translate into direct infrastructure losses and broader macro-fiscal effects, and how preventive investments (e.g., resilient infrastructure, early warning systems) and disaster risk financing instruments (e.g., insurance, contingency funds) can enhance economic stability and fiscal resilience in the Maldives. The consultant will undertake the following tasks: 1- Review of Critical Infrastructure Impact Modelling • Review the analytical approach used to assess disaster impacts on critical infrastructure sectors (transport, power, telecommunications, water). • Assess how physical asset damage, service disruptions, and recovery timelines are represented within the analytical framework. • Provide recommendations to ensure consistency with international best practice and relevance to the Maldives’ island geography and economic structure. 2- Review of CAT–Macro-Fiscal Integration • Review how outputs from catastrophe (CAT) risk models are translated into macroeconomic and fiscal shocks. • Assess the treatment of capital losses, service interruptions, reconstruction dynamics, and their transmission into macro-fiscal variables. • Advise on the appropriate use of output gaps, potential output effects, and temporary efficiency disruptions to avoid double counting of damages. 3- Macroeconomic and Fiscal Transmission Channels • Review the modelling of macroeconomic channels linking infrastructure damage to GDP, investment, employment, prices, and trade. • Review fiscal transmission channels, including impacts on revenues, expenditures, deficits, and public debt. • Provide guidance on capturing both short-term shock effects and medium-term recovery dynamics. 4- Scenario Design and Policy Analysis • Advise on the design of disaster scenarios reflecting the Maldives’ risk profile, including severe and moderate events. • Provide methodological guidance on how preventive investments, resilient infrastructure, early warning systems, and risk-financing instruments may be represented analytically. • Support interpretation of results for policy dialogue with the Ministry of Finance and other stakeholders.

Advanced university degree in Economics or a related field is required. A first-level university degree in Economics or a related field, combined with a minimum of two additional years of relevant professional experience, may be accepted in lieu of the advanced university degree. • A minimum of ten years of relevant experience in macroeconomic analysis, econometric and statistical modelling, regressions, time-series analysis, and analysis of extreme events and disaster impacts is required. • Proven experience in country-level macroeconomic and macro-fiscal modelling, including the assessment of disaster and climate-related shocks, is required. • Demonstrated expertise in quantitative economic analysis and scenario-based modelling, with a strong focus on disaster risk, climate change, fiscal impacts, and resilience policy, is required. • Extensive experience working with international organizations, governments, and policy stakeholders on disaster risk, climate change, and macroeconomic policy issues is desirable.

Fluency in English is required.

Due to the high volume of applications received, only successful candidates will be contacted.

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.