L3/L2 Outlook – Scenario Development Consultant - Ref#577901

Under the supervision of the Emergency Specialist (Risk Analysis), the L3/L2 Outlook – Scenario Development Consultant will support UNICEF’s global contextual risk monitoring and analysis, including its links to preparedness.

UNICEF works in some of the world’s toughest places, to reach the world’s most disadvantaged children. To save their lives. To defend their rights. To help them fulfill their potential. 

Across 190 countries and territories, we work for every child, everywhere, every day, to build a better world for everyone. 

And we never give up. 

For every child, hope.

 

Consultancy Title: L3/L2 Outlook – Scenario Development Consultant

Section/Division/Duty Station: Office of Emergency Operations, UNICEF NYHQ

Duration: 1 January 2025 to 30 June 2025

Home/ Office Based: NYHQ / Remote

 

About UNICEF

If you are a committed, creative professional and are passionate about making a lasting difference for children, the world's leading children's rights organization would like to hear from you. For 70 years, UNICEF has been working on the ground in 190 countries and territories to promote children's survival, protection and development. The world's largest provider of vaccines for developing countries, UNICEF supports child health and nutrition, good water and sanitation, quality basic education for all boys and girls, and the protection of children from violence, exploitation, and AIDS. UNICEF is funded entirely by the voluntary contributions of individuals, businesses, foundations and governments. UNICEF has over 12,000 staff in more than 145 countries.

 

BACKGROUND

Purpose of Activity/ Assignment:

The EMOPS Risk Assessment and Analysis Section (RAPS) has a mandate to improve and conduct risk analysis and forecasting related to contextual risks, at HQ, RO and CO levels.

Under the supervision of the Emergency Specialist (Risk Analysis), the L3/L2 Outlook – Scenario Development Consultant will support UNICEF’s global contextual risk monitoring and analysis, including its links to preparedness. 

 

Scope of Work:

The Contextual Risk Analyst (CRA) will draft analytical briefs including scenarios and probabilistic forecasts for a range of contextual hazards, with a strong focus on conflict with humanitarian impacts.

The Consultant will work with the EMOPS Risk Analysis and Preparedness Section. This is a remote / home-based consultancy.

 

Terms of Reference / Key Deliverables:

L3/L2 Outlook #10    

• 4-6 per scenarios including related inputs to briefing notes, presentations, etc. for one CO (30 January 2025)

L3/L2 Outlook #11    

• 4-6 per scenarios including related inputs to briefing notes, presentations, etc. for one additional CO (28 February 2025)

L3/L2 Outlook #12    

• 4-6 per scenarios including related inputs to briefing notes, presentations, etc. for one additional CO (30 March 2025)

L3/L2 Outlook #13    

• 4-6 per scenarios including related inputs to briefing notes, presentations, etc. for one additional CO (30 April 2025)

L3/L2 Outlook #14    

• 4-6 per scenarios including related inputs to briefing notes, presentations, etc. for one additional CO (30 May 2025)

L3/L2 Outlook #15

• 4-6 per scenarios including related inputs to briefing notes, presentations, etc. for one additional CO (30 June 2025)

In-country CO/RO/HQ scenario consultations, analysis support to L3/L2 

• 2 CO support missions are completed including facilitating risk analysis discussions, consultations with external stakeholders and CO staff, drafting one comprehensive risk analysis and scenario outlook, to support contingency planning (30 June 2025)

 

Qualifications

Education: 

Advanced university degree (Masters) in the area of Political Science, Peace/Conflict Studies, International Relations, Economics, Law, History, or other related field is required.

 

Work experience:

Knowledge/Expertise/Skills required *: 

• At least five years’ experience in contextual risk analysis, including a strong focus on conflict analysis (mandatory)
• Experience in assessing risk in terms of likelihood/probability, impact and vulnerability
• Experience in humanitarian scenario development
• Knowledge of UNICEF humanitarian operations at L3/L2 level
• Experience in writing reports for senior audiences
• Spoken and written fluency in English (mandatory); another UN language, in particular Arabic or French, is an asset.

 

Requirements:

Completed profile in UNICEF's e-Recruitment system and

- Upload copy of academic credentials

- Financial proposal that will include/ reflect :

• • the costs per each deliverable and the total lump-sum for the whole assignment (in US$) to undertake the terms of reference.
  • travel costs and daily subsistence allowance, if internationally recruited or travel is required as per TOR.
  • Any other estimated costs: visa, health insurance, and living costs as applicable.
  • Indicate your availability

- Any emergent / unforeseen duty travel and related expenses will be covered by UNICEF.

- At the time the contract is awarded, the selected candidate must have in place current health insurance coverage.

- Payment of professional fees will be based on submission of agreed satisfactory deliverables. UNICEF reserves the right to withhold payment in case the deliverables submitted are not up to the required standard or in case of delays in submitting the deliverables on the part of the consultant.

U.S. Visa information:

With the exception of the US Citizens, G4 Visa and Green Card holders, should the selected candidate and his/her household members reside in the United States under a different visa, the consultant and his/her household members are required to change their visa status to G4, and the consultant’s household members (spouse) will require an Employment Authorization Card (EAD) to be able to work, even if he/she was authorized to work under the visa held prior to switching to G4.  

Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted and advance to the next stage of the selection process

For every Child, you demonstrate…

UNICEF’s core values of Commitment, Diversity and Integrity and core competencies in Communication, Working with People and Drive for Results. View our competency framework at: Here

UNICEF offers reasonable accommodation for consultants/individual contractors with disabilities. This may include, for example, accessible software, travel assistance for missions or personal attendants. We encourage you to disclose your disability during your application in case you need reasonable accommodation during the selection process and afterwards in your assignment. 

UNICEF has a zero-tolerance policy on conduct that is incompatible with the aims and objectives of the United Nations and UNICEF, including sexual exploitation and abuse, sexual harassment, abuse of authority and discrimination. UNICEF also adheres to strict child safeguarding principles. All selected candidates will be expected to adhere to these standards and principles and will therefore undergo rigorous reference and background checks. Background checks will include the verification of academic credential(s) and employment history. Selected candidates may be required to provide additional information to conduct a background check. 

Remarks:  

Individuals engaged under a consultancy will not be considered “staff members” under the Staff Regulations and Rules of the United Nations and UNICEF’s policies and procedures and will not be entitled to benefits provided therein (such as leave entitlements and medical insurance coverage). Their conditions of service will be governed by their contract and the General Conditions of Contracts for the Services of Consultants. Consultants are responsible for determining their tax liabilities and for the payment of any taxes and/or duties, in accordance with local or other applicable laws. 

The selected candidate is solely responsible to ensure that the visa (applicable) and health insurance required to perform the duties of the contract are valid for the entire period of the contract. Selected candidates are subject to confirmation of fully-vaccinated status against SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) with a World Health Organization (WHO)-endorsed vaccine, which must be met prior to taking up the assignment. It does not apply to consultants who will work remotely and are not expected to work on or visit UNICEF premises, programme delivery locations or directly interact with communities UNICEF works with, nor to travel to perform functions for UNICEF for the duration of their consultancy contracts.